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This video features The Young Turks host Ana Kasparian interviewing Joe Kent, the former director of the United States National Counterterrorism Center, regarding the current state of conflict and diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran (0:00 - 0:46).
Key takeaways from the discussion:
- Stalled Negotiations and Theater: Joe Kent argues that much of the news surrounding peace talks is "theater" and suggests that the United States is not negotiating in good faith because of "poison pill" demands, such as the total cessation of uranium enrichment (2:57 - 3:10, 16:58 - 17:19).
- The Role of Israel: Kent asserts that the Israeli government is actively sabotaging peace efforts to pressure the Trump administration toward military escalation, as they seek to topple the Iranian regime (3:11 - 3:28). He suggests Israel has successfully profiled Trump and created an "echo chamber" of advisors and media figures who push for conflict (9:50 - 10:27).
- The Case for Withdrawal: Both Kasparian and Kent agree that there is no viable military solution to the war. Kent advocates for President Trump to declare victory and withdraw forces immediately, noting that keeping bases in the region is a strategic liability that plays to Iran's strengths (4:10 - 4:54, 18:32 - 19:54).
- Escalation Risks: Kent explains that the killing of moderate figures within Iran has empowered hardliners who may favor resuming the conflict. He warns that the U.S. is one strike away from a renewed escalation cycle where troops could be trapped under fire (5:13 - 6:45).
- Recent Tensions: The discussion touches on President Trump's recent aggressive rhetoric toward Oman (11:27 - 12:35) and the challenges of military power projection into Iran, referencing a recent, possibly "botched" rescue operation that left the administration cautious about further "boots on the ground" missions (19:56 - 21:42).
Transcript
: Welcome back to the Young Turks, I'm Ana Casparian. And uh there is a lot of confusion in regard to where we currently stand
8 seconds
in the negotiations between the United States and Iran. Many Americans want an end to this war, 14 seconds
they want the Strait of Hormuz to be open. And a lot of people got their hopes up over this past 20 seconds
weekend where it appeared as though uh Trump was close to making a deal with the Iranians, 26 seconds
and then everything fell apart. So what is actually happening right now? Well, fortunately here to discuss this story with us is Joe Kent, the former director of the National 35 seconds
Counterterrorism Center. He stepped down from the Trump administration following the start or 40 seconds
the launch of the war against Iran. And he's here to answer some questions today. uh Joe, thank you 46 seconds
so much for joining us. Thanks for having me, great to be with you. You and I haven't spoken 51 seconds
directly yet, but I really appreciate. your accessibility, how many interviews you've been doing since stepping down from your role because it has been enlightening. A lot of people are 1 minute
curious about what's really happening behind the scenes with the Trump administration. So why don't 1 minute, 5 seconds
we start off with a question that's been front of mind since this past weekend. these negotiations, 1 minute, 14 seconds
alleged negotiations between the United States and Iran seem to have kind of fallen apart. 1 minute, 19 seconds
Some believe that the Israeli sabotage piece yet again. But I actually question whether the Trump 1 minute, 25 seconds
administration is negotiating in good faith. And the reason why I say that is because Axios, 1 minute, 31 seconds
Barak Revit specifically, keeps reporting again and again and again that Trump and Netanyahu are 1 minute, 38 seconds
just at each other's throats. They had a tense phone call, there's a big disagreement. And then 1 minute, 44 seconds
you turn over to Israeli media. And Channel 14 News had quoted Kobe Michael, a senior researcher 1 minute, 51 seconds
at the Miscav Institute, who told the Israeli press this. By leaking the story about an alleged 1 minute, 58 seconds
serious crisis between Netanyahu and Trump, the Iranians may find themselves completely surprised 2 minutes, 4 seconds
by the timing of the next military strike. The leak, meaning the leak to Barak Ravid, 2 minutes, 10 seconds
created a sense of disagreement between the two leaders and positioned Trump as the leader. giving 2 minutes, 16 seconds
diplomacy another chance despite heavy pressure from Netanyahu. Trump understands very well who 2 minutes, 22 seconds
the Iranians are. So basically, he's making the argument that it was all meant to trick everybody, 2 minutes, 29 seconds
including the Iranians, as the US prepared to do a surprise strike on Iran yet again, 2 minutes, 35 seconds
which they did carry out near the Strait of Hormuz killing four Iranian soldiers. So what do you make 2 minutes, 40 seconds
of all of this? What's actually going on here? It's definitely kind of a chaotic situation. 2 minutes, 47 seconds
The fundamentals though haven't changed. mean, the Iranians are in control of the straits of Hormuz. They've demonstrated that they obviously because it's their backyard, they can outlast 2 minutes, 56 seconds
us. We continue to say that we want diplomacy while baking in poison pills to the negotiating 3 minutes, 3 seconds
uh demand saying that the Iranians have to give up enrichment which we know basically kills any hope of the deal. with the Iranians. We know that until we actually restrain the Israelis, 3 minutes, 13 seconds
whether we admit it or not, that the Israelis will do everything they can to make sure the negotiations aren't successful. uh the Israelis have been very upfront with us basically from 3 minutes, 23 seconds
the beginning. I mean, they want to take down the regime and they don't care how long it takes. So the fundamentals with the Israelis haven't changed at all. If anything, they know that their time 3 minutes, 32 seconds
is limited, especially as we head in towards the midterms. So unless we actually start taking away some of the military support that we give them that enables them to go on the offense, I mean, 3 minutes, 42 seconds
we just have to be realistic and know that Israel is gonna operate in accordance with their own best interests. I kind of think a lot of what we're seeing, unfortunately, is theater. And I say that, 3 minutes, 52 seconds
and I do hope that everything that President Trump says about trying to get a deal, I hope that's true. And I hope he proves us wrong and I hope he actually does get a deal. But I think right now 4 minutes, 1 second
the Iranians are seeing that they still control the big fundamentals. uh And they're leaving Trump 4 minutes, 7 seconds
with the only option right now he has unless he decides to leave like I've been advocating for is to escalate militarily. A lot of the hardliners in Iran I think want that the Israelis want that 4 minutes, 17 seconds
but Trump hasn't so far because I think deep down inside President Trump knows that actually there is no military solution. He tried that for the first iteration of the war and it didn't work. 4 minutes, 26 seconds
So. until President Trump kind of snaps out of it and sees that basically he's being given really bad advice by probably some of his own advisors and by the Israelis and just leaves. 4 minutes, 37 seconds
We're gonna be stuck in this stalemate, which I think is very dangerous because we're one missile or we're one strike away from losing some of our troops. And then we're gonna be in an escalation 4 minutes, 46 seconds
cycle once again where we can't leave under fire. Right now, I think he should take the opportunity while there is a ceasefire to just declare victory and simply leave, reset the negotiation that way. 4 minutes, 56 seconds
Okay, you just said so many interesting things that I wanna ask you about. Okay, so I totally agree with your assessment in regard to Trump should just leave. There is no winning 5 minutes, 4 seconds
this war. But you said that Iran would want an escalation. Why do you believe that? right now 5 minutes, 13 seconds
militarily they're winning. two things, number one, because we killed a lot of the moderates in that country. And I know a lot of our critics will get mad when I say the former Ayatollah was some 5 minutes, 23 seconds
kind of a moderate. I don't mean moderate in the sense of like one of our neighbors moderate here in America. I mean moderate by Iranian standards. uh He was making the Iranians observe a strict 5 minutes, 33 seconds
escalation ladder in regards to the proxies attacking us. He held the prohibition on the development of a nuclear weapon. We killed him really early on, the Israelis were diabolically 5 minutes, 43 seconds
smart in getting us on board with doing that strike because they basically got us on board of taking out the moderates. Several of the other moderates were killed. So now the IRGC and a lot 5 minutes, 51 seconds
of the hardliners who've been advocating for more aggression against us and the Israelis for quite some time, they're now in power and they're saying like, hey, are we gonna sit and play 5 minutes, 59 seconds
this negotiating game with the Americans and wait for them to attack us for the third time during negotiations? Let's hit them. Also the Iranian regime, they were having some internal strife 6 minutes, 9 seconds
before. the conflict kicked off in February. However, since we killed the Ayatollah and hit 6 minutes, 16 seconds
Iran, they've had a rally around the flag effect with their people. So the hardliners in Iran, just like the hardliners in Israel and unfortunately just like the hardliners here in our country, 6 minutes, 25 seconds
they all want the war to resume because it benefits them. So I think that's what we have to be wary of right now. That's why I say Trump should get us out right now, because one of those 6 minutes, 34 seconds
hardliners could simply decide to restart the war and- God forbid kill some of our troops and 6 minutes, 39 seconds
then we can't leave under fire. While he can say that we're winning, he should leave right now. So, 6 minutes, 46 seconds
it's interesting because right now, the United States and particularly Donald Trump 6 minutes, 52 seconds
and the Republican Party are getting nothing beneficial out of this war, nothing. I mean, 6 minutes, 57 seconds
the Strait of Hormuz is closed right now. uh The economy is already roiling as a result of that. 7 minutes, 3 seconds
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your match on ZipRecruiter. So Trump seems to have every incentive to walk away and he's one 8 minutes, 22 seconds
of these rare people who's able to, say that he won, right? Declare victory even in the face of 8 minutes, 30 seconds
defeat and people will believe it. So I think he could totally pull that off and just end this, but 8 minutes, 35 seconds
he's not doing that. So the real question is, why? Is it because, look, some people genuinely think, 8 minutes, 43 seconds
well, the Israelis have something on him, maybe it's blackmail. Others argue that he's worried about being assassinated by the Israelis. Those are some of the more hyperbolic allegations. But 8 minutes, 52 seconds
other allegations might have to do with- something that we're unaware of, Maybe uh Trump genuinely 9 minutes
thinks he could get a deal, but what is your read of it? Why do you think Trump is allowing the Israelis to essentially dictate the terms of this war, how long it lasts, and whether or not 9 minutes, 10 seconds
it ends? You're right, and that's the question. I mean, because right now for President Trump to stay in the situation that he knows is bad, that he's not benefiting from, America's not benefiting 9 minutes, 20 seconds
from, smart money would say that he would just. pull out and like you said, and I said, 9 minutes, 25 seconds
just kind of projected he had won. So the question is, why is he doing this? And my best guess is, 9 minutes, 32 seconds
it is a combination of there is an unknown factor there. And I will be accused of being called the conspiracy theorist, but saying that, hey, we should at least look at the assassination attempts 9 minutes, 40 seconds
against President Trump, the breaches in his security, what happened to Charlie Kirk. We should factor those things in. I'm not saying that's 100 % the case, but maybe there also is something else 9 minutes, 49 seconds
that's unknown that I'm not sure of. Or really the Israelis did a very, very good job of profiling American politics and profiling President Trump's psychology. And they still have this echo chamber 9 minutes, 59 seconds
around him that I described in my resignation letter, where you have higher level Israeli officials that are engaging directly outside of official channels with American officials that are 10 minutes, 9 seconds
on Trump's inner circle. You've got the media echo chamber that he consumes of Fox News, the New York 10 minutes, 15 seconds
Post. Mark Levin, Sean Hannity, etc. You've got the foundation for the defense of democracies, the pro-Israel think tank that's staffing a lot of his national security decisions that are saying, no, 10 minutes, 24 seconds
Mr. President, you can't leave. They're playing to his ego and saying that you're historic, you're the only one that can take down this regime that's been in power for the last 47 years. I 10 minutes, 34 seconds
understand that, and I think that makes sense to a certain degree. However, I do think President Trump is smart enough to see that he's again, not getting anything out of this. So I'm kind of left 10 minutes, 44 seconds
going back to our original question of what the hell is he doing? Because I do believe that this 10 minutes, 50 seconds
is actually out of characteristic for President Trump. Yeah, definitely and I think that there's, look, I don't think you're being a conspiracy theorist. I think that there's something bigger 10 minutes, 58 seconds
here that the general public is totally unaware of and that's what's keeping him in this war. 11 minutes, 4 seconds
uh Look, the other thing that really stood out to me today in the press conference that he held was a statement that he made about Oman, which we have absolutely no problem with whatsoever. But Oman 11 minutes, 15 seconds
has been working with Iran in trying to figure out how to manage the Strait of Hormuz. And so here's 11 minutes, 21 seconds
what Trump had to say in response to a question about the strait and then he issues a threat 11 minutes, 26 seconds
toward Oman. Take a look. Iran wants control of the Strait of Hormuz. Would you accept a short 11 minutes, 32 seconds
term deal that allows Iran and Oman to control the strait? And would they have to open it immediately or would you be open to that happening over a period of time? No, the strait is gonna be open to 11 minutes, 41 seconds
everybody. And who would control it? International waters. Nobody's gonna control it. We're gonna watch over it. We'll watch over it, but nobody's gonna control it. That's part of the negotiation 11 minutes, 51 seconds
that we have. They would like to control it. Nobody's gonna control it. It's international waters and Oman will behave just like everybody else and we'll have to blow them up. 12 minutes, 4 seconds
I'm not an expert on military, anything related to the military. So I want to just put that on 12 minutes, 9 seconds
the table and let everyone know I'm ignorant of this. But that statement, first of all, the threat toward Oman, I personally think is totally unhinged. But also the statement overall 12 minutes, 19 seconds
I find to be a little bit unhinged. Because it's one thing to make a claim like that when you have 12 minutes, 24 seconds
the military capability to force open the Strait of Hormuz. But my read of this is that we do not 12 minutes, 31 seconds
have the military capacity to do that. Maybe I'm incorrect. Can you give us some clarity on 12 minutes, 36 seconds
it? If there was a military solution, President Trump would say to Secretary Hegseth, make it so, 12 minutes, 42 seconds
and it would be done. Although I think President Trump understands that any tactical victory we have would be very short lived. Otherwise, again, he would just execute it. Look, the Iranians don't 12 minutes, 51 seconds
need much in terms of technology to be able to really hamper the commerce on the straits of Hormuz. We've known this now. for decades. when President Trump, I had to go back and listen to 13 minutes, 1 second
that clip several times because I didn't know if he misspoke and clearly he didn't. uh This kind of actually goes back to what we just talking about. When I hear President Trump speak like that, 13 minutes, 11 seconds
I think it's very much out of character. uh Trump can be hyperbolic, but usually it's kind of in a 13 minutes, 17 seconds
jokey over the top kind of trolley way. When it comes to diplomacy and high level negotiations, 13 minutes, 24 seconds
I haven't heard him use. talk like this with a partner country or a friendly country, even a country that he respects. I know he respects the Omanis. I've never heard that 13 minutes, 34 seconds
before. I've heard him be very, very measured before. I've heard him even chastise aides before 13 minutes, 39 seconds
uh for using harsh language with potential trade partner. uh So I kind of read that as Trump being 13 minutes, 45 seconds
very frustrated. He's frustrated with a lot of the people who are noticing. that he's out of really good options and who are saying the things that we're saying like, Mr. President, 13 minutes, 55 seconds
why don't you just leave? And for some reason he can't leave. And now he's lashing out at many people who used to support him, myself included. I understand why he lashed out at me because the 14 minutes, 4 seconds
way I left the administration. I understand that. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Thomas Massey, there's all these folks, Tucker Carlson, there's all these people who were core Trump supporters 14 minutes, 12 seconds
now, who are saying, Mr. President, what the hell are you doing? And he's lashed out at them. Maybe the Omanis have said something to him behind closed doors. They more than likely have 14 minutes, 21 seconds
because the Omanis for a very long time, they've been like the Switzerland, the Geneva almost of the Middle East and they've helped us out a lot with back channel diplomacy. So when he says that, 14 minutes, 32 seconds
don't think it's necessary, it does come across as being very unhinged, but I think he's just frustrated with the situation. Yeah, I mean, I would be frustrated with the situation as well, 14 minutes, 41 seconds
but I would maybe avoid sidelining DNI. who has stepped down from her position 14 minutes, 49 seconds
when she did the threat assessment and said that Iran is not building nuclear weapons, is not a threat to the United States. uh And I would have maybe considered that Israel does have 14 minutes, 59 seconds
completely different objectives than the United States. And back to your point about how the US 15 minutes, 6 seconds
demands absolutely no uranium enrichment by the Iranians. I mean, Every country has the right 15 minutes, 13 seconds
to enrich uranium up to 3.5 % for energy purposes and apparently there are medical purposes as well. 15 minutes, 20 seconds
You need enriched uranium to reach 90 % in order to build a nuclear weapon. And I'm not saying this 15 minutes, 28 seconds
just to insult Trump because I'm genuinely curious. Do you think that he knows that? 15 minutes, 33 seconds
And do you think there's maybe a possibility that Trump would, if someone spoke to him about this, 15 minutes, 40 seconds
Do you think that he would maybe accept Iran being able to enrich uranium up to 3.5 %? I don't think President Trump, at the beginning of the administration, he didn't really care about 15 minutes, 49 seconds
the enrichment per se. I don't think he was a technical expert on levels of enrichment. 15 minutes, 56 seconds
He was dead set, and he says this all the time, Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. And the reason why Trump was at the negotiating table with Iranians on two separate occasions, 16 minutes, 5 seconds
and I believe on the cusp of getting a deal. was because President Trump said, Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. And the Ayatollah said, well, good news, I've had a fatwa, a prohibition on 16 minutes, 15 seconds
developing a nuclear weapon that's been in place since 2003. And President Trump asked us early on in the administration, why doesn't Iran have a nuclear weapon? And we pointed out the fatwa and 16 minutes, 25 seconds
we said, hey, a lot of people won't trust a fatwa because it's like this Shia religious decree and we have no reason to trust it other than the fact that it's actually worked. And Iran could have had 16 minutes, 34 seconds
a nuclear weapon long before President Trump was even in his first administration if they wanted to. But their strategy was really pragmatic. They didn't want to get the Gaddafi treatment 16 minutes, 42 seconds
by giving up everything, giving up the ability to enrich uranium. They didn't want to get the Saddam treatment by rushing towards a nuclear weapon or making it look like kind of hinting that they had 16 minutes, 51 seconds
a nuclear weapon. So they kind of had this middle version where they could have a nuclear weapon, but they weren't going to and enriching uranium was a key part of that. That was well understood 17 minutes, 1 second
and I believe President Trump understood it. If you even go back to some of the original messaging that Steve Witkoff was using when he would do media appearances, he was talking about 17 minutes, 8 seconds
him and the Iranians sitting down and negotiating levels of enrichment, how the enrichment would be 17 minutes, 14 seconds
monitored by the international community. They were working out the technical details. And this is why I believe the Israelis came in with their influence operation and a full court press to move 17 minutes, 24 seconds
the red line away from. Iran can never have a nuclear weapon to Iran can't enrich the way 17 minutes, 29 seconds
they're able to launder that talking point into becoming US policy back this into this corner. And 17 minutes, 36 seconds
every time you see Trump come out and say, Iran can't have a nuclear weapon. It's always cleaned up later on about enrichment and then they push him and he's painted back into this corner. So I 17 minutes, 45 seconds
think if we could just get the enrichment issue out of the way, we would move on past that and we'd be much closer to actually making a deal. Yes, I look I totally agree with you on that. 17 minutes, 55 seconds
great point about the cleaning up his language after the fact to no enriched uranium. And when 18 minutes, 2 seconds
you go to the Iranian side and what they're demanding, they have some demands that might 18 minutes, 7 seconds
be huge red lines for the United States. For instance, uh Iran wants all US military out of 18 minutes, 14 seconds
the region, and they did destroy our bases in Gulf countries. And so is that something that you think 18 minutes, 22 seconds
the Trump administration would be open to? think the gut reaction is to say, we'll never back down, 18 minutes, 29 seconds
we're gonna keep our bases here, gosh darn it. But a lot of us have been advocating for a very long time that our bases in these regions, they're actually more of a strategic liability than they 18 minutes, 39 seconds
are an asset. And this last iteration of conflict with Iran really proved that. Our bases we had to evacuate, we had to have our guys go and scatter out to local hotels. We took major damage at that 18 minutes, 49 seconds
CENTCOM headquarters. We're always gonna need some degree of, we call it basing and overflight and 18 minutes, 55 seconds
the ability to use some airfields, the ability to use ports. We're always going to need that. But the ability to have a large military presence on Iran's borders, I believe actually plays to our 19 minutes, 5 seconds
enemy, plays to Iran's strengths. Cuz if they can reach out and touch us with their weapon systems. Then it's game on, it's a fair fight for them. We have the ability, and we proved this with Midnight 19 minutes, 14 seconds
Hammer, we have the ability to reach all the way across the world and strike our enemies if we want to, and then pull our troops back away from their striking distance. So I think this is like 19 minutes, 23 seconds
the easiest one for Trump to give to the Iranians, say, okay, fine, we'll pull the vast majority of our basing out of the region. We'll occasionally use some places here and there for overflight, 19 minutes, 32 seconds
fine, we'll give you that one. And then Trump can turn to the American people and say, Yeah, these bases were dumb anyways, just like he's doing with a lot of the basing in Europe. He can be like, 19 minutes, 40 seconds
this is an old construct, we're getting ripped off on the whole deal. We're gonna bring our guys back home. It's like win-win for both sides. So I think that's an easy one that we can just move on past, 19 minutes, 49 seconds
give the Iranians a quick win. We take a quick win. It's tactically good business for us as well. I agree with you. uh Final question, and this is a little bit of a maybe controversial tricky one. 20 minutes, 1 second
A few weeks back there was an alleged rescue operation on Iranian soil by the US military. 20 minutes, 8 seconds
We lost several military aircraft in that mission. I don't think we're getting the whole story there. 20 minutes, 17 seconds
I want to know why we were so far in Iranian territory. Was there an effort to retrieve 20 minutes, 24 seconds
enriched uranium? Is that what was going on there? I was out of the government by then, so honestly, 20 minutes, 30 seconds
I don't know. The good news that came out of that, number one is that none of our guys were killed 20 minutes, 36 seconds
and we got them all out. But number two, whether that was a botched operation or that was actually 20 minutes, 41 seconds
legitimately a recovery operation, we did get a taste of how hard it is to operate in Iran. Iran's 20 minutes, 48 seconds
a big country. uh We projecting power into Iran is actually very, very challenging. And I'm glad that- We got everybody out without anyone getting hurt and that gave President Trump a taste of how 20 minutes, 58 seconds
challenging boots on the ground operations would be. Because prior to that, we are seeing a full court press by Lindsey Graham, Sean Hannity, FDD, all of them were yelling about going boots on the 21 minutes, 9 seconds
ground, taking one of the islands, uh actually putting forces in there to support some of the so-called resistance fighters. Ever since that happened, a lot of those cries have died down 21 minutes, 19 seconds
and I think the president saw. close he was to becoming like Jimmy Carter and having a desert 21 minutes, 25 seconds
one type of scenario when we went in back in 79 and tried to recover our hostages, we had that catastrophic accident. So I don't have any like inside information, I don't know. I'm just 21 minutes, 36 seconds
really glad that everyone got out okay and we kind of got our fill of it, hopefully got our fill of attempting boots on the ground operations. Yeah, I mean, if that was an enlightening experience 21 minutes, 45 seconds
for the president and that would prevent. boots on the ground, then I'm all for it because I think it 21 minutes, 51 seconds
would be disastrous. Especially when you consider what the number of troops that went into Iraq in 21 minutes, 59 seconds
that preemptive war, we're talking about hundreds of thousands of troops. We have like what 50,000 22 minutes, 5 seconds
military personnel and about I don't know how many of them are combat veterans or combat troops, but 22 minutes, 10 seconds
not all 50,000 of them are. And so you compare the terrain or the size of Iran versus Iraq. I mean, 22 minutes, 19 seconds
it's night and day, it's a far more challenging war, putting boots on the ground. It's like a death sentence for our soldiers, and I really, really want to prevent that from happening. But 22 minutes, 28 seconds
I appreciate you taking the time to speak with us today and give us a little bit of knowledge on what's going on. And I hope you'll come back soon. Thank you so much. uh